Koniec „Veľkej recesie“

Americký NBER, ktorý je zodpovedný za oficiálne
vyhlásenie začiatku a konca recesie americkej ekonomiky, oznámil, že
posledná tzv. „Veľká recesia“ trvajúca 18 mesiacov (najdlhšia recesia po druhej
svetovej vojne) oficiálne skončila v júni 2009.

Koniec „Veľkej recesie“

Na otváranie
šampanského je napriek tomu ešte priskoro. Obrat vo vývoji niektorých
ekonomických ukazovateľoch kúpený na dlh za stámiliardy dolárov zatiaľ obchádza
vysokú nezamestnanosť. V množstve vytvorených (stratených) pracovných miest od
oficiálneho konca recesie sa zatiaľ jedná o druhé najslabšie “zotavenie”.

Obrázok: os x
percentuálna zmena v množstve pracovných miest od konca recesie, os y počet
mesiacov od konca recesie

Zdroj: Bereau of Labor Statitics via The Big
Picture

CAMBRIDGE September 20,
2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of

Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the
committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S.
economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in
December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18
months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.
Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82,
both of which lasted 16 months.

In determining
that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that
economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy
has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined
only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession
is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting
more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment,
industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of
the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.
Economic
activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it
sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

The committee decided that any future downturn of the
economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that
began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength
of the recovery to date.“

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